Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3bc…1e7e crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+14%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$8
sports 31% +$32
other 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 45% -8.7%
≤30d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 45% -8.7%
≤90d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 45% -8.7%
all 29 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 45% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 45% -17.5%
15% -34.3% 34% -25.4%
20% -40.7% 34% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$46 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$11 +218%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$17 +112%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 26 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +110%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $19 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 36m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) SELL New Zealand 100¢ $56 4h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY New Zealand 91¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.16 · official $20.16 (match) · 67 history records