Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc3bb…ba5a other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$761 (+35%) realized +$666 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%20W / 82L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days+$287
14 days+$666
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$358
other 40% +$154
sports 10% +$160
crypto 5% −$37
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +30.4% +17.9% 16% 15% +40.3%
≤30d 102 +16.0% +5.0% 20% 16% +62.4%
≤90d 102 +16.0% +5.0% 20% 16% +62.4%
all 102 +16.0% +5.0% 20% 16% +62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 16% +62.4%
10% -5.1% 16% +46.9%
15% -14.2% 15% +32.7%
20% -22.6% 14% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$4 · ×13.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized+$666
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses20 / 82
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions68
Markets (closed)102 / 170
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 26¢ 45¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+76%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-56%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$59 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 +$97 +3139%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $18 +$45 +243%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +649%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 +$118 +1966%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 +$126 +769%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 35m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 20¢ $22 43m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 6¢ $6 44m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $55 45m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $74 53m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 55m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 56m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.12 · official $520.17 (match) · 348 history records