Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3bb…34ea crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,065 (+5%) realized +$1,067 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%98W / 67L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$358
7 days−$904
14 days−$904
30 days−$904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,166
politics 13% +$1,604
other 11% +$239
sports 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 53% -13.8%
≤30d 159 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 159 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 53% -13.8%
all 165 -7.8% -16.5% 59% 53% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 53% -6.3%
10% -24.5% 44% -15.3%
15% -31.8% 31% -23.4%
20% -38.5% 23% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$85 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses98 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage589d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $297 $295 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$24 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$48 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$36 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$50 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$32 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$41 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $173 +$70 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $321 +$153 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$22 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $199 +$99 +50%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$74 -70%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$63 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$86 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $360 −$359 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$143 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$93 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$28 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$49 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$82 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$82 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $109 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $72 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $154 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.74 · official $336.05 (match) · 419 history records