Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3b9…7544 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-8%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%59W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$66
sports 4% +$4
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 48% -13.1%
≤30d 42 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 48% -13.1%
≤90d 114 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 42% -21.5%
all 114 -4.7% -13.7% 52% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 42% -21.5%
10% -22.0% 33% -29.0%
15% -29.5% 23% -35.8%
20% -36.4% 18% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses59 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage49d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 40¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -17%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 04 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 50m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $4.61 (match) · 448 history records