Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3b5…b43e crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$207
sports 8% +$15
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 16% -25.6%
≤30d 32 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 16% -25.6%
≤90d 32 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 16% -25.6%
all 32 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 16% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 16% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -47.7% 16% -32.7%
15% -52.7% 9% -39.2%
20% -57.4% 6% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $116 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $208 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $207 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -10%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$5 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -49%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$20 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$4 -20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 −$4 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 80 history records