trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 40% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 22% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 22% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 21 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 43% | 5% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 5% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 5% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $49 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 10 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 27 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 27 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Wofford vs. Tennessee | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Mar 19 | $10 | −$2 | -16% |