Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3af…f79c sports 738 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$226 (-9%) realized −$161 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%344W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$23
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$75
sports 24% −$23
crypto 17% −$8
world 14% −$80
politics 6% −$40
tech 4% −$19
weather 1% −$3
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 43% +38.8%
≤30d 11 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 55% +37.3%
≤90d 34 -31.0% -37.6% 35% 35% -10.1%
all 706 -10.9% -19.3% 49% 45% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -15.9%
10% -27.1% 40% -24.0%
15% -34.1% 35% -31.3%
20% -40.6% 27% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses344 / 362
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)706 / 738
History coverage211d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 73¢ 85¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 19¢ $56 $19 −$37 (-66%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 71¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 55¢ 22¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 30¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-52%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 10¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-83%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$8 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$4 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$23 +120%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 06 $3 +$5 +177%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 25 $4 +$3 +73%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $5 +$5 +98%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Clavicular arrested again by April 30? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $6 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Real Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Villarreal place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Apr 17 $9 +$4 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $11 +$8 +77%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30–2.40 in February? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.30 in February? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5 Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Bulls: O/U 225.5 Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Capitals vs. Canucks Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Kings Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5 Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Jets vs. Wild Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $3 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $3 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $3 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 35h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $4 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 35h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $43 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 30¢ $5 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 16d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $4 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 93¢ $10 32d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.16 · official $156.16 (match) · 1869 history records