Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ae…ad0f crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%55W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +5.9% -4.2% 43% 32% -9.0%
≤30d 111 +4.0% -5.9% 42% 32% -13.1%
≤90d 131 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 32% -13.9%
all 131 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 32% -13.9%
10% -18.0% 22% -22.2%
15% -25.9% 15% -29.7%
20% -33.2% 8% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses55 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage83d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$11 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 444 history records