Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ad…922b other 525 markets active 4h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%214W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$74
sports 17% −$129
world 4% +$28
politics 2% +$3
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.7% -13.8% 27% 16% +3.6%
≤30d 71 -4.3% -13.4% 37% 23% -1.2%
≤90d 389 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 25% -10.5%
all 524 -7.8% -16.6% 41% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 27% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 20% -18.7%
15% -31.9% 14% -26.6%
20% -38.5% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses214 / 310
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 525
History coverage119d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$38 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$16 +62%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$11 -39%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$53 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $67 −$36 -54%
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $39 −$3 -9%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $18 $0 -2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -7%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $67 +$47 +70%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 −$2 -8%
Will National Bank of Egypt Club win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $6 $0 -5%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $8 $0 -3%
Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $52 −$41 -78%
Will Pharco FC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club end in a draw? May 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will El Gouna SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC end in a draw? May 22 $8 −$6 -78%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Wadi Degla SC vs. ZED FC end in a draw? May 21 $22 +$7 +30%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw? May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $3 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 65¢ $10 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $11 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $12 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $3 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $3 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $4 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $4 15h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 93¢ $5 15h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 92¢ $5 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $13 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $13 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $5 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $4 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 75¢ $4 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 77¢ $4 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 74¢ $4 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 74¢ $4 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2683 history records