Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3aa…55d6 crypto 1608 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate89%1428W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
sports 0% +$1
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 37% -7.6%
≤30d 485 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 38% -7.6%
≤90d 759 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 51% -9.7%
all 1610 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 26% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 26% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1428 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1610 / 1608
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1610 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records