Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc3a8…ee66 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$23
politics 26% +$14
other 18% +$22
tech 4% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.1% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 11% -13.7%
all 37 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 14% -8.5%
10% -16.8% 11% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 8% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage301d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $71 −$30 -42%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 22 $69 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $68 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $48 +$21 +43%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 09 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $51 35m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $51 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $30 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $20 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $50 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $35 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records