Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3a3…8959 politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
politics 28% +$11
other 19% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 3% +$1
tech 4% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +2.4% -7.3% 43% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +2.4% -7.3% 43% 14% -8.4%
all 38 +14.0% +3.1% 58% 5% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 5% -6.3%
10% -6.8% 3% -15.3%
15% -15.8% 3% -23.5%
20% -24.0% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage424d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $36 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $17 +$2 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 02 $2 +$16 +697%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 6 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jul 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $6 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $10 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $16 21d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $15 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $15 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $35 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $35 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 25d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 180d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $11 196d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $3 196d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 197d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $14 275d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $14 276d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $14 276d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $13 276d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $35.52 (match) · 230 history records