Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3a1…e747 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%30W / 7L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$5
crypto 24% +$1
culture 8% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +79.4% +62.3% 100% 100% +62.3%
≤30d 7 +12.1% +1.4% 100% 14% -1.0%
≤90d 18 +7.6% -2.7% 100% 11% -5.2%
all 37 +1.1% -8.6% 81% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -8.4%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 5% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.69 per $1 lost it wins $4.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses30 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage143d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in May 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? May 31 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 5? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 05 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +43%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in March? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 3? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 19? Feb 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 10? Feb 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $33 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 mee Feb 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison? Feb 07 $21 $0 -0%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Feb 03 $12 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Feb 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 10d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 40d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 46d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 46d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 46d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 55d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 92d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 92d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $5 92d
Will Trump talk to MrBeast in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 92d
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 110d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 110d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY No 100¢ $32 116d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 122d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 123d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY No 99¢ $20 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.82 · official $32.82 (match) · 76 history records