Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3a0…44eb crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-12%) realized −$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%52W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$65
14 days+$64
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$373
crypto 28% +$21
sports 25% +$184
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 40% -5.4%
≤30d 17 -16.3% -24.2% 47% 24% -17.4%
≤90d 76 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 37% -17.0%
all 102 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 36% -16.6%
10% -25.4% 27% -24.6%
15% -32.6% 22% -31.9%
20% -39.2% 14% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses52 / 50
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage90d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $254 +$120 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$162 -80%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$82 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $193 +$124 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$129 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $211 −$207 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? May 04 $5 +$3 +62%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5 +$2 +43%
Will "Invasion" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Expe Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -82%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 24 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 24 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 24 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 24 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 24 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 -46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Mar 24 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 23 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 23 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 23 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 23 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $180 37m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $194 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $132 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $41 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $102 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $286 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $163 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $98 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $154 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $92 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $74 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records