Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc39f…eea8
crypto · 267 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$643 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$635 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$315
Realized−$635
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses129 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 267
History coverage1d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3085.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 281 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$635
7 days−$635
14 days−$635
30 days−$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $94 $104 +$9 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $51 $67 +$16 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 56¢ 66¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 49¢ 34¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 46¢ 100¢ $11 $24 +$13 (+119%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 28¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+253%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+125%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$30 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$27 -1652%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$20 -1355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$68 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $328 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $121 +$63 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $156 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $267 −$38 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $95 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $160 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $210 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $180 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $147 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $203 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $246 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $144 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $98 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $75 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $215 −$16 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $157 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $163 −$24 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $88 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $147 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $145 −$47 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $273 −$40 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $201 −$55 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$27 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $219 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $225 −$41 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $218 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $32 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $67 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $55 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $50 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $47 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $62 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $43 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $47 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $22 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $59 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 281 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 25% -10.6%
≤90d 281 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 25% -10.6%
all 281 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 25% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3085.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 25% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 11% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 8% -27.0%
20% -35.6% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.90 · official $313.83 (match) · 3500 history records