Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc39f…a385 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-7%) realized −$35 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$111
crypto 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 0% 0% -37.5%
≤30d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 0% 0% -37.5%
≤90d 5 -23.5% -30.8% 0% 0% -37.5%
all 5 -23.5% -30.8% 0% 0% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 0% -37.5%
10% -37.4% 0% -43.5%
15% -43.5% 0% -48.9%
20% -49.0% 0% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $56 −$5 -9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $48 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $99 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7h
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 7h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.94 · official $147.94 (match) · 11 history records