Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc39f…7047 other 44 markets active 1d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% $0
other 19% +$2
culture 6% −$1
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage452d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 28 $11 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 18 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 18 $11 $0 -4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 06 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $32 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $32 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $25 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $32 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records