Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc39a…e16e
crypto · 615 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$21 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses328 / 286
Open positions1
Markets (closed)614 / 615
History coverage95d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 614 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$12
14 days+$103
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$6 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$6 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$7 +351%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$21
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +7.3% -3.0% 34% 34% -5.1%
≤30d 557 +6.6% -3.6% 53% 45% -6.8%
≤90d 603 +4.7% -5.2% 53% 45% -8.3%
all 614 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 45% -8.7%
10% -14.7% 38% -17.5%
15% -22.9% 30% -25.4%
20% -30.5% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $3.13 (match) · 982 history records