Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc399…53ab sports 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (721 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$5,176 (-5%) realized −$5,230 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +194% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip
Net edge+127%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%159W / 171L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day720.8pace
Fees−$889est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$5,024
other 19% +$79
world 15% +$61
weather 1% +$28
tech 0% +$8
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (721 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+166.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 +194.3% +166.3% 48% 39% -1.4%
≤30d 330 +194.3% +166.3% 48% 39% -1.4%
≤90d 330 +194.3% +166.3% 48% 39% -1.4%
all 330 +194.3% +166.3% 48% 39% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover720.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +166.3% 39% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here +140.8% 34% -10.8%
15% +117.5% 32% -19.4%
20% +96.2% 30% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +194% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +188% → late +201% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$28 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,299
Realized−$5,230
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses159 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$889
Open positions46
Markets (closed)330 / 230
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$499
Trades / day720.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $374 $379 +$4 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $257 $273 +$17 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $243 $273 +$29 (+12%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $116 $125 +$9 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? No 29¢ 43¢ $31 $46 +$15 (+49%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 12¢ 23¢ $23 $45 +$22 (+92%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? No 60¢ 100¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? No 35¢ 40¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 84¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $19 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 6¢ 4¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 61¢ 79¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 70¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? No 86¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 74¢ 59¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $3 +$709 +22941%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $168 +$40 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +1233%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 21 $0 −$14 -6851%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 21 $45 +$376 +833%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 21 $0 +$41 +14761%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +84%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 21 $52 −$32 -62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $6 −$23 -381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$3 +513%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $0 −$55 -13629%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$4 -185%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 21 $0 −$2 -517%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$5 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $37 +$168 +459%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $1 +$3 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 +$2 +255%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 21 $1 +$28 +1898%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$3 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 36¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 35¢ $18 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 25¢ $6 9m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $177 12m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 73¢ $36 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 25¢ $8 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $17 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $17 17m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 25¢ $12 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 29¢ $11 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 60¢ $14 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $22 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $73 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $11 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $21 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,299.16 · official $1,276.03 · 3500 history records