Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc398…f446 sports 1422 markets active 0h ago coverage 497d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 496d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52,895 (-13%) realized −$52,758 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%530W / 890L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1,055est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,700
7 days−$1,887
14 days−$1,107
30 days−$1,670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$29,947
other 29% −$24,595
crypto 8% +$412
world 0% −$356
politics 0% −$82
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -16.2% -24.2% 36% 36% -27.1%
≤30d 225 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 41% -14.6%
≤90d 470 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 36% -19.5%
all 1420 -12.5% -20.9% 37% 37% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 37% -21.8%
10% -28.4% 37% -29.3%
15% -35.4% 36% -36.1%
20% -41.7% 34% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$256 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$52,758
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses530 / 890
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,055
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1420 / 1422
History coverage497d ⚠
Avg bet$282
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Viktorija Golubic 40¢ 36¢ $94 $84 −$11 (-11%)
ITF San Gregorio: Ruien Zhang vs Nadia Podoroska Ruien Zhang 30¢ 1¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Ortenzi vs Yaneva Jun 18 $355 −$349 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 18 $211 −$211 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $799 −$799 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $589 +$416 +70%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $397 +$192 +48%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $267 +$341 +128%
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jun 17 $299 +$328 +109%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 17 $151 +$213 +142%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $335 +$467 +139%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $120 +$132 +109%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 16 $399 −$399 -100%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $126 +$149 +118%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $203 +$227 +112%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $200 +$202 +101%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $252 +$221 +88%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $102 +$150 +148%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $43 +$34 +79%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $54 +$56 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $92 +$437 +473%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Olivia Lincer Jun 11 $66 +$80 +121%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Elina Avanesyan vs Lea Boskovic Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $121 −$121 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Tahlia Kokkinis Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Max Wiskandt vs Niklas Guttau Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Wuning: Ekaterina Maklakova vs Rina Saigo Jun 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 40¢ $96 2m
ITF San Gregorio: Ruien Zhang vs Nadia Podoroska BUY Ruien Zhang 30¢ $131 1h
Set 1 Winner: Ortenzi vs Yaneva BUY Ortenzi 47¢ $118 2h
Set 1 Winner: Ortenzi vs Yaneva BUY Ortenzi 47¢ $237 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $798 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 16h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $42 16h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $963 16h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 18h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $588 18h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $589 18h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 66¢ $397 20h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 41¢ $211 20h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 52¢ $608 20h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 22¢ $1 20h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 22¢ $266 20h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ $1 22h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 36¢ $299 22h
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro BUY Starodubtseva 43¢ $200 23h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 34¢ $127 24h
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli BUY Elsa Bonelli 47¢ $299 26h
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ran Yang 22¢ $98 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye BUY Shiyu Ye 37¢ $202 28h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Yuyao Li 29¢ $97 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $203 29h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $165 29h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Iveta Dapkute 35¢ $102 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.24 · official $86.24 (match) · 3500 history records