Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc398…e242 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-84%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.6% -33.6% 56% 50% -33.1%
≤30d 16 -26.6% -33.6% 56% 50% -33.1%
≤90d 16 -26.6% -33.6% 56% 50% -33.1%
all 16 -26.6% -33.6% 56% 50% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 50% -33.1%
10% -39.9% 25% -39.5%
15% -45.7% 19% -45.3%
20% -51.0% 12% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records