Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc394…0082 other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 439d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-4%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$161
sports 29% +$77
crypto 5% −$72
world 4% −$61
politics 2% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.7% +2.0% 44% 44% -10.9%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.8% 36% 36% -29.7%
≤90d 12 +9.0% -1.4% 42% 42% -13.7%
all 64 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -14.0%
10% -24.3% 38% -22.2%
15% -31.6% 34% -29.7%
20% -38.3% 22% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$39 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage439d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$23 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$31 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$44 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $104 −$6 -6%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $80 +$80 +100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 21 $299 −$2 -1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the announcement on Th Jan 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Ducks vs. Avalanche Jan 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m Jan 08 $322 −$52 -16%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jan 08 $304 −$19 -6%
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Jan 07 $110 +$47 +43%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Jan 07 $50 +$18 +35%
Bruins vs. Kraken Jan 07 $39 −$32 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 04 $0 $0 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $46 −$38 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 04 $123 −$48 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 03 $3 +$1 +42%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 01 $128 +$54 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 01 $120 −$72 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $23 −$21 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $104 +$51 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $100 +$114 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $151 −$60 -39%
Wild vs. Golden Knights Dec 30 $100 +$92 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $250 −$4 -2%
Sharks vs. Ducks Dec 30 $100 −$76 -76%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times du Dec 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Capitals vs. Panthers Dec 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $277 +$289 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $97 +$48 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $86 −$14 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on D Dec 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine P Dec 28 $25 +$13 +51%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 29? Dec 28 $71 −$24 -33%
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President e Dec 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $46 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $60 −$12 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $13 +$6 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $190 −$171 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 15¢ $72 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $80 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $97 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $98 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 15d
Blues vs. Sharks SELL Sharks 100¢ $161 85d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 50¢ $39 85d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 50¢ $42 85d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA SELL Canada 54¢ $298 122d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $299 123d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $3 136d
Will Trump say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the announcement on Th BUY Yes 60¢ $9 145d
Will Trump say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the announcement on Th BUY Yes 60¢ $12 145d
Will Trump say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the announcement on Th BUY Yes 60¢ $13 145d
Ducks vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 56¢ $51 153d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m SELL Yes 2¢ $125 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $70.00 · 261 history records