Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc392…595d sports 1152 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,621 (-5%) realized −$1,871 · open +$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%520W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$508est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$472
7 days−$1,690
14 days−$3,087
30 days−$2,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$219
other 5% −$574
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 45% -26.3%
≤30d 396 -14.5% -22.7% 44% 44% -18.3%
≤90d 1144 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 44% -12.4%
all 1144 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 44% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 44% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 43% -20.8%
15% -29.8% 41% -28.4%
20% -36.7% 38% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,028
Realized−$1,871
Unrealized+$250
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses520 / 624
Est. fees paid−$508
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1144 / 1152
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 Over 50¢ 88¢ $98 $174 +$75 (+76%)
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Over 52¢ 84¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Indiana Fever 48¢ 67¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Indiana Fever 53¢ 72¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Indiana Fever 38¢ 52¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 97¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 53¢ 38¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $101 +$95 +93%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 18 $101 +$81 +80%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) Jun 18 $101 +$47 +46%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $101 +$81 +80%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $203 +$155 +76%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $254 +$246 +97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 16 $254 −$250 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $604 +$185 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 +$121 +119%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 1h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $102 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 38¢ $102 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $81 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $101 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27h
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $101 29h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 87¢ $100 29h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 54¢ $101 29h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 51¢ $101 30h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 56¢ $101 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $101 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 30h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $102 42h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 42h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 42h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Indiana Fever 47¢ $102 42h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY PortlandFire 55¢ $101 3d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $101 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.45 · official $1,028.45 (match) · 3500 history records