Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc391…56d0 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$181 (-23%) realized −$183 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$92
sports 14% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.1% +14.1% 38% 25% -33.4%
≤30d 8 +26.1% +14.1% 38% 25% -33.4%
≤90d 8 +26.1% +14.1% 38% 25% -33.4%
all 8 +26.1% +14.1% 38% 25% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 25% -33.4%
10% +3.1% 25% -39.7%
15% -6.8% 25% -45.6%
20% -16.0% 25% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$70 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $47 $214 +$167 (+354%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $300 +$22 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$116 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$28 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $321 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 92¢ $300 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $87 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $37 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 76¢ $54 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.14 · official $214.14 (match) · 21 history records