Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc391…a7cd crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-9%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$140
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.5% -32.6% 40% 20% -19.2%
≤30d 10 -25.5% -32.6% 40% 20% -19.2%
≤90d 10 -25.5% -32.6% 40% 20% -19.2%
all 10 -25.5% -32.6% 40% 20% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 20% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 0% -26.9%
15% -45.0% 0% -34.0%
20% -50.4% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$38 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $307 −$56 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$11 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $230 +$38 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $131 −$37 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $130 −$125 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records