Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc390…2a1f world 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,887 (+29%) realized +$43,464 · open −$10,577
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%84W / 137L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,100
14 days+$2,458
30 days+$2,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$52,636
finance 25% −$20,768
other 4% +$3,394
politics 3% −$1,860
crypto 1% −$42
sports 1% −$147
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.2% +47.6% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 22 +54.9% +40.1% 73% 73% +64.4%
≤90d 120 -23.6% -30.8% 38% 33% -14.4%
all 221 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 34% +37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 34% +37.5%
10% -22.1% 33% +24.4%
15% -29.6% 31% +12.4%
20% -36.5% 28% +1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$153 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$2,521
Realized+$43,464
Unrealized−$10,577
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses84 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions34
Markets (closed)221 / 255
History coverage142d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 16¢ 16¢ $1,006 $994 −$12 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $273 $271 −$2 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $423 $267 −$156 (-37%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $446 $244 −$201 (-45%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $146 $162 +$16 (+11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $155 $152 −$2 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $93 $53 −$39 (-42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 51¢ $65 $51 −$14 (-22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5,094 $41 −$5,053 (-99%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 22¢ 58¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+166%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $44 $25 −$19 (-43%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $26 $21 −$6 (-22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2,164 $15 −$2,149 (-99%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $291 $14 −$277 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1,052 $10 −$1,042 (-99%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 54¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+45%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 6¢ $61 $6 −$55 (-90%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $423 $4 −$419 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $632 $3 −$629 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $955 +$971 +102%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $94 +$31 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $180 +$98 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $117 +$93 +80%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $156 +$154 +99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 +$48 +91%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$75 +312%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$106 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $335 +$370 +110%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $111 +$99 +89%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $196 +$447 +229%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $172 +$326 +190%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $349 −$349 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $56 +$24 +43%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? May 27 $31 −$31 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? May 27 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 24 $56 −$16 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $300 −$90 -30%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 18 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $24 +$21 +88%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: April May 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $458 −$455 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $1,404 −$1,370 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 10 $14 +$16 +122%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? May 04 $56 +$36 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $69 +$31 +45%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $353 +$20 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $59 +$41 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $108 +$92 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $16 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $66 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $16 1h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $33 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $99 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $82 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $116 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $50 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $82 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $82 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $132 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $82 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $148 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 16h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 16h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $120 37h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $65 37h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 37h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $108 37h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $108 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,521.24 · official $2,521.27 (match) · 2971 history records