Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc38f…1014 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,624 (+49%) realized +$5,631 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 73L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days−$120
14 days+$1,094
30 days+$1,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$359
sports 23% +$344
other 23% +$5,580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +32.8% +20.1% 67% 67% -24.5%
≤30d 17 +56.9% +41.9% 82% 82% +23.2%
≤90d 135 -12.8% -21.1% 46% 43% -6.4%
all 136 -8.7% -17.4% 46% 43% +41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 43% +41.2%
10% -25.3% 40% +27.7%
15% -32.5% 33% +15.3%
20% -39.2% 28% +4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +56% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$40 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$5,631
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 73
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 141
History coverage115d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 41¢ 40¢ $130 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $122 +$184 +150%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 +$674 +165%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $550 +$626 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$21 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$22 +22%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 08 $200 +$60 +30%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Jun 08 $110 +$180 +164%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 08 $300 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 12 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 12 $37 +$48 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 12 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 11 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 07 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 07 $20 +$42 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 07 $70 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 07 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 07 $130 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 07 $53 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 07 $70 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 07 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 07 $110 +$45 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 07 $30 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $132 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 30¢ $179 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $102 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $204 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $122 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $306 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $550 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $102 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 47¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $203 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $30 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $22 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $63 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.04 · official $604.38 · 357 history records