Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc38e…dce8 crypto 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$473 (+2%) realized +$568 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%120W / 63L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$674
7 days+$674
14 days+$674
30 days+$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$234
other 19% +$826
world 14% +$423
sports 8% −$298
politics 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +48.1% +34.0% 100% 100% +51.2%
≤30d 2 +48.1% +34.0% 100% 100% +51.2%
≤90d 89 -38.5% -44.4% 40% 27% -20.3%
all 183 -8.7% -17.4% 66% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 34% -7.9%
10% -25.3% 17% -16.7%
15% -32.5% 13% -24.8%
20% -39.1% 10% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$51 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$568
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses120 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage123d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 57¢ 10¢ $114 $19 −$95 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $135 +$30 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $869 +$644 +74%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $201 +$21 +10%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $51 +$10 +20%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $102 +$21 +21%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $142 +$48 +34%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $82 +$50 +61%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Eyüpspor vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $100 +$57 +57%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $104 +$93 +90%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 12 $300 −$300 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $1,011 −$237 -23%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $560 +$42 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $160 +$20 +12%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw? Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $100 +$22 +22%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $269 +$31 +12%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $367 +$32 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $105 +$102 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 29 $84 +$16 +19%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $293 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $390 +$6 +2%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $30 −$19 -65%
Will Córdoba CF vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? Mar 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $819 +$101 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 23 $130 −$108 -83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $200 −$29 -14%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $200 +$82 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 22 $20 −$11 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $165 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $135 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,513 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $869 40d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 41d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 43d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL No 96¢ $221 43d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $62 43d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 87¢ $201 43d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $51 43d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $113 44d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $5 44d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $5 44d
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $102 44d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $190 50d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 50d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $82 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 1142 history records