Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc38c…16a7 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$2
world 32% +$2
sports 21% −$14
economics 10% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 23 +21.1% +9.5% 26% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 33 +14.6% +3.7% 24% 9% -9.6%
all 40 +10.4% -0.1% 35% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 10% -9.9%
10% -9.7% 5% -18.5%
15% -18.4% 2% -26.4%
20% -26.4% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage531d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $86 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $52 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $54 −$1 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $412 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $420 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $296 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $13 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $270 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $43 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jan 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $21 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $24 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $21 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records