Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc38c…ef7f other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$543 (-22%) realized −$543 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
sports 9% +$59
crypto 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 30% -1.7%
≤30d 44 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 30% -1.7%
≤90d 44 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 30% -1.7%
all 44 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 30% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 30% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 23% -11.1%
15% -17.9% 20% -19.7%
20% -25.9% 20% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$33 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$543
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +237%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $709 +$688 +97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $41 +$94 +230%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -38%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $62 −$28 -46%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $72 −$11 -16%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -68%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$4 +35%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $141 +$28 +20%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$14 +140%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -32%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $70 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $526 −$512 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $62 −$11 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $51 +$83 +162%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $51 +$36 +71%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $74 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 +$35 +339%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$3 +21%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $70 +$7 +11%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $43 +$44 +101%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 41m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,397 41m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 14¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 7h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 83¢ $75 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records