Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc389…d228 crypto 1299 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,742 (-27%) realized −$1,742 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%714W / 740L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day198.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,849
7 days−$3,523
14 days−$3,179
30 days−$3,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$748
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 800 -29.4% -36.1% 32% 30% -63.5%
≤30d 1454 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 45% -40.0%
≤90d 1454 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 45% -40.0%
all 1454 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 45% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 45% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 37% -45.7%
15% -32.0% 30% -51.0%
20% -38.7% 23% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,742
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses714 / 740
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1454 / 1299
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day198.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1454 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records