Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc387…b297 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,295 (-27%) realized −$1,280 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$1,391
14 days−$1,302
30 days−$1,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,713
sports 23% +$300
politics 6% −$15
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.9% -59.2% 25% 12% -44.9%
≤30d 9 -37.8% -43.7% 33% 22% -41.8%
≤90d 15 -28.6% -35.4% 40% 33% -41.5%
all 16 -26.2% -33.3% 44% 31% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 31% -39.5%
10% -39.6% 19% -45.3%
15% -45.5% 19% -50.6%
20% -50.8% 12% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$220 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$1,280
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage113d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $264 $249 −$15 (-6%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $872 +$63 +7%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $791 +$336 +42%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $58 −$44 -76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $225 −$177 -78%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $360 −$360 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,190 −$1,178 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 +$89 +99%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 02 $170 −$159 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 01 $11 +$9 +89%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $20 +$4 +20%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $165 +$35 +21%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 30 $47 −$12 -26%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $216 +$21 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 52m
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 53m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $649 53m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $477 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $93 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $644 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $87 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $231 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $48 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $48 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $8 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $275 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.77 · official $249.77 (match) · 162 history records