Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
C3 0xc386…386f sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,220 (+10%) realized +$4,164 · open +$56
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%123W / 162L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$749est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$692
7 days−$1,940
14 days−$568
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,980
other 0% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +19.8% +8.4% 40% 36% -50.4%
≤30d 72 +8.3% -2.0% 39% 36% -19.2%
≤90d 285 +26.4% +14.3% 43% 41% -2.4%
all 285 +26.4% +14.3% 43% 41% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 41% -2.4%
10% +3.4% 40% -11.7%
15% -6.6% 39% -20.2%
20% -15.8% 36% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$110 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized+$4,164
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses123 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$749
Open positions3
Markets (closed)285 / 288
History coverage66d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 60¢ 64¢ $535 $575 +$40 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 49¢ 100¢ $147 $300 +$153 (+104%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B eternal premium 41¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $602 −$602 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $0 +$1 +300%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $145 −$145 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $17 +$139 +807%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 +$25 +809%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $129 +$158 +122%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 +$2 +223%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $7 +$21 +300%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $129 −$129 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $542 −$542 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 23 $150 +$100 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 23 $60 −$59 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $33 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $244 −$244 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $103 +$20 +19%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,000 +$40 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $45 +$15 +33%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $310 −$310 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $28 +$9 +32%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - A Jun 22 $27 +$27 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $7 +$4 +59%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $43 +$20 +47%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Jun 21 $29 +$11 +36%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$90 +163%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $594 +$577 +97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $568 +$551 +97%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $370 −$367 -99%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $438 +$612 +140%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $174 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $368 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 49¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 36¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 11¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 56¢ $112 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $21 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $18 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $28 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $66 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $241 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 17h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.36 · official $875.36 (match) · 1086 history records