Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc383…734b crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,944 (-88%) realized −$1,942 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 260d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,933
politics 1% −$17
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 23% -90.4%
≤30d 39 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 23% -90.4%
≤90d 39 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 23% -90.4%
all 39 +7.4% -2.8% 26% 23% -90.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 23% -90.4%
10% -12.1% 21% -91.3%
15% -20.6% 15% -92.2%
20% -28.4% 15% -92.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$73 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,942
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage260d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$20 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 30? Jun 16 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 1? Jun 16 $490 −$490 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 30? Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 30? Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$96 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$10 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$19 +351%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.31 · official $5.62 · 112 history records