Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc383…c054 sports 781 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,617 (-6%) realized −$12,617 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%489W / 291L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,379
7 days+$1,571
14 days+$1,571
30 days+$1,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$7,753
other 8% −$3,480
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$277
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.7% +11.9% 86% 68% +7.8%
≤30d 28 +23.7% +11.9% 86% 68% +7.8%
≤90d 91 +0.6% -8.9% 65% 49% -1.7%
all 780 -3.2% -12.4% 63% 48% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 48% -14.4%
10% -20.8% 33% -22.6%
15% -28.4% 22% -30.1%
20% -35.4% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$181 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses489 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)780 / 781
History coverage373d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 780 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $446 +$62 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $913 +$180 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $601 +$349 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $381 +$201 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $375 +$80 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $511 +$343 +67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $351 +$25 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $124 +$12 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $319 +$92 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $285 +$34 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $232 +$53 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $606 −$143 -24%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $342 +$33 +10%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $272 +$98 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $141 +$43 +31%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-2 Jun 24 $272 +$142 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $120 +$65 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $264 +$120 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $298 +$47 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $201 +$45 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $100 +$298 +296%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $176 −$175 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $13 +$6 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 29 $54 +$17 +32%
Abidjan 2: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar Apr 28 $55 $0 -1%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Veronika Podrez vs Katie Boulter Apr 17 $4 $0 +1%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $82 −$78 -95%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Apr 17 $38 −$27 -72%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Pa Apr 05 $12 +$16 +134%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 05 $34 −$13 -37%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 05 $20 +$5 +23%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $23 −$5 -20%
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Creighton Bluejays Apr 04 $40 +$16 +40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 04 $9 −$4 -47%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $24 −$15 -62%
Texas Longhorns vs. UCLA Bruins (W) Apr 04 $82 +$43 +52%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $73 +$10 +13%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $225 −$35 -15%
Set 1 Winner: Kessler vs Starodubtseva Apr 03 $102 +$8 +8%
San Luis Potosi: Facundo Mena vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 03 $167 +$9 +5%
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 03 $150 +$7 +5%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Thiago Agustin Tiran Apr 03 $155 −$64 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Nursulton Ruziboev 100¢ $508 30m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 87¢ $446 34m
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Daniil Donchenko 100¢ $1,093 56m
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Daniil Donchenko 83¢ $913 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Jean Matsumoto 100¢ $950 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 62¢ $601 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 100¢ $583 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 65¢ $381 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $375 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $854 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $511 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $376 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $124 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 93¢ $351 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 52¢ $401 43h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $411 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 77¢ $319 45h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Hugo Gaston 89¢ $285 47h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 81¢ $232 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Dusan Lajovic 73¢ $232 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 72¢ $232 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Vilius Gaubas 34¢ $232 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 53¢ $374 2d
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald SELL Cezar Cretu 100¢ $375 2d
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald BUY Cezar Cretu 91¢ $342 2d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Andres Santamarta 95¢ $150 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $272 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $141 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-2 BUY 65¢ $272 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Keegan Smith 67¢ $185 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1866 history records