Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc383…9b33 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$6
other 25% $0
politics 6% −$5
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.1%
all 37 -2.7% -11.9% 43% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage470d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 10 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $36 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $38 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $38 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.67 · official $39.24 · 107 history records