Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc37e…e184 crypto 785 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$624 (-5%) realized −$615 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%315W / 467L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day167.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days−$197
14 days−$981
30 days−$975
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$779
weather 23% −$181
other 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 27% -15.4%
≤30d 782 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 30% -17.2%
≤90d 782 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 30% -17.2%
all 782 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 30% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 25% -25.1%
15% -39.1% 22% -32.3%
20% -45.1% 19% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$615
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses315 / 467
Open positions3
Markets (closed)782 / 785
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day167.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $18 +$22 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $47 +$30 +64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $83 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $36 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $68 +$14 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $49 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $39 +$35 +90%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $89 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $97 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $90 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $69 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3424 history records