Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc378…5e4c sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$748 (+8%) realized +$756 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%121W / 88L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$94
14 days+$411
30 days+$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$908
crypto 22% +$42
other 14% −$281
world 1% −$31
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +14.7% +3.8% 60% 58% -10.0%
≤30d 209 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 49% -0.6%
≤90d 209 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 49% -0.6%
all 209 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 49% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 49% -0.6%
10% -10.7% 46% -10.1%
15% -19.3% 42% -18.8%
20% -27.2% 34% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$756
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses121 / 88
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 214
History coverage26d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Viktorija Golubic 71¢ 66¢ $109 $101 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $25 +$15 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$19 +109%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $13 +$23 +172%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $42 +$31 +75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$16 -48%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $34 +$15 +44%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $46 +$55 +120%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $30 +$16 +53%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $25 +$19 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$30 -54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $98 +$21 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 +$93 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$58 -70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $163 −$162 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$73 -72%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $133 +$92 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $370 +$15 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $201 +$159 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $78 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1,171 −$138 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $44 +$90 +206%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$48 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $117 −$116 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $81 +$48 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $151 +$34 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $34 +$16 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $69 +$41 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$35 +44%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $13 +$37 +276%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $50 +$84 +168%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 72¢ $70 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 69¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $25 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $25 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $8 14h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 36¢ $13 17h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $17 19h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 56¢ $26 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 36h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $50 36h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ $30 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $20 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $19 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $21 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No $1 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $16 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $16 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $12 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 42h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 69¢ $34 44h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 61¢ $21 46h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 49¢ $20 47h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $25 47h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $20 2d
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 65¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 48¢ $25 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.74 · official $100.74 (match) · 442 history records