Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc374…ecf5 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,227 (+16%) realized +$1,821 · open −$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$431
7 days+$317
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2,319
sports 34% −$1,441
politics 6% −$152
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 33% +27.2%
≤30d 13 -30.6% -37.2% 23% 23% -4.6%
≤90d 14 -35.6% -41.7% 21% 21% -23.6%
all 45 -9.4% -18.0% 36% 36% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 36% +10.3%
10% -25.9% 31% -0.2%
15% -33.0% 31% -9.9%
20% -39.6% 29% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$117 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,821
Unrealized−$594
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage603d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $600 $6 −$594 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 +$431 +86%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$123 +478%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$6 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $260 −$259 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $272 +$41 +15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 30 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $70 −$70 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $158 +$112 +71%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Nov 16 $311 −$311 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 01 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $179 −$179 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $266 −$265 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $50 +$27 +54%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 15 $414 −$414 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 06 $323 −$323 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 06 $100 +$223 +223%
Santos vs. Yoo Oct 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Emmett vs. Zalal Oct 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 US Open? Sep 20 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Sep 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $293 +$301 +103%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Sep 19 $1,031 +$1,600 +155%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 09 $44 +$93 +212%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 15 $444 +$1,042 +234%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $20 +$42 +212%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $120 +$185 +155%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $439 −$152 -35%
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff Jun 07 $100 +$240 +240%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $481 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $216 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 71d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $50 136d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Alcaraz 87¢ $272 144d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 146d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $40 146d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.58 · official $5.58 (match) · 109 history records