Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc371…1bcb
politics · 113 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses27 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)102 / 113
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 Under 92¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 87¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Under 88¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 97¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? No 99¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $2 $0 +7%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Stacy Garrity win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican prima May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7 $0 +3%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? May 13 $6 −$3 -43%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 -44%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? May 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? May 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will Ken Capron win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electio May 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? May 13 $2 $0 -16%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ja’Mel Brown win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary ele May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? May 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -15%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -8%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? May 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -35%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -39%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 12 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 62% −$9
other 14% −$5
sports 12% −$1
tech 7% −$5
crypto 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 100¢ $1 36m
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 36m
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 49m
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 49m
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 51m
Shelbourne FC vs. Shamrock Rovers: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 51m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? SELL No 86¢ $2 2h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 83¢ $2 2h
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 2h
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 2h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 3h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 83¢ $2 3h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 3h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 86¢ $2 3h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 95¢ $2 3h
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 83¢ $2 3h
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? SELL No 92¢ $2 3h
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary SELL Yes 88¢ $2 3h
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary el BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY No 94¢ $2 6h
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 84¢ $2 6h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary BUY Yes 91¢ $2 6h
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL No 100¢ $2 8d
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? SELL No 100¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 12% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 17% -6.3%
≤90d 102 -8.3% -17.1% 26% 8% -16.2%
all 102 -8.3% -17.1% 26% 8% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -16.2%
10% -25.0% 4% -24.2%
15% -32.3% 1% -31.5%
20% -38.9% 1% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.45 · official $21.45 (match) · 330 history records