Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc371…1e28 crypto 733 markets active 1d ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139,870 (-702%) realized −$140,082 · open +$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%339W / 647L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day101.9pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$3,799
crypto 22% +$41
other 5% +$220
world 2% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 360 -36.3% -42.4% 13% 12% -25.7%
≤30d 868 -12.1% -20.4% 36% 33% -43.7%
≤90d 986 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 32% -43.2%
all 986 -13.2% -21.5% 34% 32% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 32% -43.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 22% -48.6%
15% -35.8% 16% -53.6%
20% -42.1% 14% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$140,082
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses339 / 647
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions11
Markets (closed)986 / 733
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day101.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 98¢ $236 $597 +$361 (+153%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $295 $303 +$8 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $130 $149 +$19 (+15%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 42¢ 52¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+25%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 87¢ 1¢ $87 $1 −$86 (-99%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 17 $24 −$22 -93%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 17 $98 −$91 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $21 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $5 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Jun 17 $118 −$81 -69%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Wildcard (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A Jun 17 $28 −$36 -129%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: HAVU vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cu Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Senators vs. Canucks Jun 17 $12 +$90 +765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regu Jun 17 $18 −$24 -127%
Will FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $98 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,088.34 · official $1,088.34 (match) · 3500 history records