Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc370…d8d9 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-9%) realized −$24 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$4
crypto 9% −$8
politics 3% −$10
world 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 18 -28.9% -35.7% 28% 28% -60.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 28% -60.2%
10% -41.8% 28% -64.0%
15% -47.5% 28% -67.5%
20% -52.6% 28% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)18 / 26
History coverage169d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-13%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5AM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1PM ET Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11AM ET Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12PM ET Jan 13 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8PM ET Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3PM ET Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9AM ET Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET Jan 12 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11PM ET Jan 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2AM ET Jan 12 $2 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2PM ET Jan 11 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2AM ET Jan 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6AM ET Jan 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.33 · official $256.35 (match) · 62 history records