Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc36f…15fd crypto 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate70%274W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$15
14 days−$50
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -0.8% -10.2% 68% 50% -17.4%
≤30d 382 -2.5% -11.7% 70% 49% -13.5%
≤90d 389 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 49% -12.4%
all 389 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 49% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 22% -20.8%
15% -27.6% 10% -28.5%
20% -34.7% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses274 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 389
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 962 history records