Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc36d…f0ef other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-8%) realized −$360 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%36W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$330
14 days+$230
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$52
other 39% −$369
economics 6% +$36
politics 4% −$14
crypto 1% −$11
world 1% +$3
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +35.6% +22.7% 65% 65% +4.9%
≤30d 19 +30.7% +18.3% 63% 63% +0.9%
≤90d 20 +33.9% +21.1% 65% 65% +1.7%
all 69 +1.5% -8.2% 52% 48% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 48% -17.2%
10% -17.0% 46% -25.1%
15% -25.0% 43% -32.3%
20% -32.3% 33% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$60 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses36 / 33
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage516d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 81¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+63%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$225 +111%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $202 +$94 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $61 +$113 +184%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$135 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $25 +$23 +93%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 18 $5 +$12 +233%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Oct 18 $10 +$12 +123%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 08 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jul 06 $20 −$20 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) Jul 06 $20 +$14 +72%
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (To Advance) Jul 06 $50 +$18 +35%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $5 −$5 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) Jul 01 $100 +$41 +41%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? Jul 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jun 28 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 28 $58 +$10 +18%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump x Xi talk before July? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +59%
UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Portugal (To Advance) Jun 05 $20 +$37 +186%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $80 +$54 +68%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 20 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? May 07 $56 +$2 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 07 $12 +$10 +80%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $58 +$18 +32%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $26 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $26 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $82 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.28 · official $284.29 (match) · 145 history records