Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc36b…6c20 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$117 (+23%) realized +$128 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% +$23
sports 28% −$25
world 14% +$21
tech 12% +$40
politics 10% +$15
finance 9% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +47.0% +33.0% 100% 100% +29.1%
≤30d 5 +14.1% +3.3% 80% 80% +7.0%
≤90d 7 +22.0% +10.4% 86% 86% +12.9%
all 7 +22.0% +10.4% 86% 86% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 86% +12.9%
10% -0.2% 86% +2.1%
15% -9.8% 43% -7.8%
20% -18.7% 29% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$49 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage59d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 77¢ 66¢ $77 $67 −$11 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $59 +$40 +68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $91 +$24 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $70 +$21 +30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $48 +$22 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 18 $64 +$33 +52%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $49 +$15 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 77¢ $79 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 90¢ $98 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 52¢ $59 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $91 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $91 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL No 99¢ $70 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 66¢ $48 31d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 86¢ $97 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 54¢ $64 38d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 39d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.59 · official $63.59 · 15 history records