Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc369…b1cc sports 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,580 (-7%) realized −$1,554 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%142W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days−$1,162
14 days−$1,438
30 days−$1,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -13.1% -21.4% 55% 54% -22.3%
≤30d 280 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 50% -17.1%
≤90d 280 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 50% -17.1%
all 280 -7.5% -16.3% 51% 50% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 50% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 44% -25.0%
15% -31.6% 34% -32.3%
20% -38.3% 26% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$54 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized−$1,554
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses142 / 138
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions9
Markets (closed)280 / 289
History coverage23d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Ozan Baris 86¢ 82¢ $264 $252 −$12 (-5%)
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Volodymyr Iakubenko Volodymyr Iakubenko 80¢ 79¢ $186 $183 −$3 (-1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 83¢ 84¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ 72¢ $135 $142 +$7 (+5%)
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher Antonia Stoyanov 76¢ 76¢ $116 $116 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Jakub Filip Yannik Kelm 73¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Berfu Cengiz 70¢ 68¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 52¢ 42¢ $85 $67 −$18 (-21%)
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Elizara Yaneva 58¢ 57¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $146 +$52 +35%
ITF Bolszewo: Marcelina Podlinska vs Daria Gorska Jun 17 $242 +$64 +27%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $81 +$35 +44%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente Jun 17 $161 +$61 +38%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $48 +$44 +93%
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $146 +$32 +22%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $90 −$89 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 17 $231 −$230 -100%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Iker Gaztambide Arrastia vs Sergi Fita Juan Jun 16 $201 +$49 +24%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Jun 16 $216 +$40 +18%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $28 +$23 +83%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $34 +$30 +86%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $71 +$28 +40%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $127 +$123 +97%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $161 +$44 +27%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 16 $152 +$98 +64%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $294 −$102 -35%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $94 +$45 +48%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $99 +$37 +38%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $51 +$46 +92%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $116 +$23 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $292 +$89 +30%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 14 $291 −$290 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $68 +$39 +57%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $76 −$3 -3%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $48 +$46 +97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $19 +$26 +134%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $89 +$68 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $116 −$46 -40%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 14 $131 +$47 +36%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 13 $122 −$121 -99%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
ITF Madrid: Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 13 $116 −$115 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 12 $42 +$29 +70%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Messina: Maxence Rivet vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 12 $251 +$46 +18%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Jun 12 $56 +$48 +86%
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Pia Lovric Jun 12 $102 +$40 +40%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ui Su Jeong Jun 12 $75 +$31 +42%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Jun 12 $161 +$28 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Jakub Filip BUY Yannik Kelm 73¢ $101 55m
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 58¢ $33 1h
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris BUY Ozan Baris 86¢ $265 1h
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Volodymyr Iakubenko 80¢ $187 1h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Berfu Cengiz 70¢ $79 1h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 73¢ $146 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente SELL Gabriele Maria Noce 100¢ $222 14h
ITF Dinard: Antonia Stoyanov vs Mavie Osterreicher BUY Antonia Stoyanov 76¢ $116 16h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 68¢ $136 16h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 53¢ $30 16h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 52¢ $56 16h
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Chelsea Fontenel 77¢ $201 16h
ITF Bolszewo: Marcelina Podlinska vs Daria Gorska BUY Marcelina Podlinska 78¢ $242 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 69¢ $56 26h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 69¢ $25 26h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 70¢ $90 26h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 51¢ $48 26h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $146 26h
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina BUY Mariya Dobreva 37¢ $41 26h
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi BUY Elena Jamshidi 86¢ $231 26h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente BUY Gabriele Maria Noce 72¢ $161 26h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Xiyu Wang 83¢ $161 26h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Iker Gaztambide Arrastia vs Sergi Fita Juan BUY Sergi Fita Juan 80¢ $201 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari BUY Vaidehi Chaudhari 61¢ $25 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari BUY Vaidehi Chaudhari 60¢ $126 2d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez BUY Eugenia Zozaya Menendez 84¢ $216 2d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 51¢ $76 2d
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $101 2d
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 72¢ $101 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 78¢ $161 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,130.82 · official $1,130.82 (match) · 668 history records