Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc368…cab4 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$361 (-8%) realized −$333 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$463
sports 19% +$152
other 18% −$85
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 47% -17.9%
≤30d 53 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 47% -17.9%
≤90d 53 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 47% -17.9%
all 53 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 47% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 47% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 40% -25.7%
15% -39.1% 40% -32.9%
20% -45.0% 32% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$63 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$333
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage4d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 34¢ $86 $59 −$27 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $391 +$379 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 −$195 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $406 +$194 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $129 −$124 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$39 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $131 +$5 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$95 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$79 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $85 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $87 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $391 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $196 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to BUY 12¢ $47 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $202 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.35 · official $142.36 (match) · 145 history records