Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc368…a3c4 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,329 (-7%) realized −$991 · open −$338
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 35% -24.2%
≤30d 31 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 35% -24.2%
≤90d 31 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 35% -24.2%
all 31 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 35% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 35% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 26% -31.5%
15% -40.3% 23% -38.1%
20% -46.2% 16% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$870) neutral
Persistence
early +21% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$394 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$991
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Cloud Rising 28¢ 13¢ $230 $106 −$123 (-54%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 42¢ $158 $2 −$157 (-99%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 20¢ $60 $2 −$58 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $528 −$528 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $493 −$493 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $693 −$693 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $870 +$130 +15%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,742 +$543 +31%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $359 −$17 -5%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 15 $340 −$105 -31%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,397 −$626 -26%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $168 −$168 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,227 +$104 +8%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $96 +$38 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $814 +$162 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $679 +$135 +20%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $598 +$629 +105%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $450 +$186 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $511 +$1,272 +249%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $935 +$767 +82%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $534 −$94 -18%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$30 +70%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $419 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 20¢ $61 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,016 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 28¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 40¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 40¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 41¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 42¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 43¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 28¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 28¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 28¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 26¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 29¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 79¢ $158 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $14 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $25 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $14 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.73 · official $109.73 (match) · 157 history records