Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc367…37c0 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$11
other 43% −$8
economics 5% −$1
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$805) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage83d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,091 −$3 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close Jun 17 $1,041 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,080 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elect May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 24 $756 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $808 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $163 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $76 43m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $32 49m
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $36 56m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,088 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,060 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $191 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $799 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $224 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records