Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc366…e150 crypto 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-3%) realized −$115 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%312W / 378L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$105
14 days−$34
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$62
sports 26% −$3
weather 19% −$29
other 13% −$46
politics 6% −$20
tech 1% −$2
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.9% -22.1% 38% 38% -19.1%
≤30d 264 -7.2% -16.0% 32% 30% -14.9%
≤90d 690 -6.2% -15.1% 45% 42% -14.7%
all 690 -6.2% -15.1% 45% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 42% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -22.9%
15% -30.6% 22% -30.3%
20% -37.4% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses312 / 378
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions8
Markets (closed)690 / 699
History coverage57d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 52¢ $60 $58 −$3 (-5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $56 +$34 +62%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $78 −$77 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$9 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$14 +114%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $73 +$69 +95%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 +$35 +82%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $18 +$7 +38%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $42 −$42 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $21 −$7 -32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $18 −$6 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$7 +55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$17 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$12 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $11 −$1 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $33 −$13 -40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$18 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 +$21 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 +$20 +115%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$18 +295%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 +$43 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $61 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $56 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $78 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 11¢ $11 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $20 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 90¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $13 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $27 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $48 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $4 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $64 22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $73 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $78 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $43 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $22 38h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $18 39h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $42 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 95¢ $14 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $49 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.82 · official $80.83 (match) · 1870 history records